Month: June 2025

By Musanjufu Benjamin Kavubu

Many experts have reduced BRICS to a mood, Economists are even saying dollarisation is a myth for left sympathisers and a new enchantment for the global South. Those who take it seriously see it as a threat to the World Bank and the IMF, the former dealing with short-term development plans across the world and the latter dealing with long term fiscal policies, this sets the dollar as the global leading currency and a tool for Western hegemony.

The USA’s economy is based on their military might and NATO. As the world changes there have been many developments and to counter Western led multilateral groups the global South has BRICS, which as of 2023  expanded to 10 countries.

The current BRICS Summit is today 22^nd to the 24^th of October 2024. For starters it’s reported that 34 countries in one form or another have applied to join the group. The is being viewed as a counter to the G7 and it’s taking even a grander shape on the security front which is a key pillar of its founding.

From the 10^th of September to the 12^th 2024 the Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted a meeting of National Security Advisors of all the members of the BRICS and that meeting was under the organization’s Political and Security Pillar of Cooperation. There are about 53 conflicts raging in the world today, the Russia-Ukraine and the Israeli brutal occupation of Palestine are the most outstanding causing seismic Geopolitical shockwaves world over. These conflicts disrupt global supply chains that are very vital to globalization in terms of trade especially amongst BRICS and the global South.

Let’s understand what Supply Chains and Geopolitics are first. A supply chain is the network of organizations, people, activities, information, and resources involved in the creation and delivery of a product or service from the supplier of raw materials to the end customer. It encompasses all the processes involved in sourcing raw materials, manufacturing, logistics, distribution, and retail, including the management of these activities to ensure efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and customer satisfaction. Basically the definition of Supply Chains can be swapped for the essence of the Belt and Road Initiative by China that is now a decade and has facilitate development of the world in general.

On the other hand Geopolitics that refers to  how geographical factors, such as location, natural resources, and physical terrain, influence the political power, decisions, and relationships between countries basically international relations. Geopolitics is how nations use their geographical advantages and go about challenges to pursue economic, military, and strategic goals on the global stage. If you look at the foundation of BRICS, you will notice how geography affects global politics and international relations.

Security situations throughout history have proven far and wide effects across the world, effects on every aspect of life, from social to economic. And in the last about 24 months there have been military drills amongst BRICS members aimed at safe guarding trade routes and ensure smooth flow of supply chains that are vital for humans civilization. In 2023 the Russian and South African Navies got together for a drill, in the Second quarter of 2024 the Russian Navy conducted drills with Cuba a vital global South country and very recently the Chinese Navy joined Russia for the Ocean 2024 drill. These drills are aimed to prepare for eventualities that may affect sea trade routes, that’s why they were conducted in the Arctic, Mediterranean, Pacific, Caspian and Baltic water ways.

The world geography has these areas that are prone to military and naval blockages during times of conflicts. Areas like the Strait of Hormuz controlled Largely by Iran and BRICS member in the Middle East, connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea vital for global oil supply a lot of it ending China. It one the reasons China had to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran together through its Global Security Initiative GSI for normalizing diplomatic relations. The Strait of Malacca connecting the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, essential for trade between Asia and Europe. The Suez Canal that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea helping to bypass the longer route around Africa. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait  between Yemen and Djibouti, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, vital for shipping between Europe and Asia, has almost all major Navies operating in the area.

The Panama Canal that Connects the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits in Turkey a member of NATO but also seeking BRICS membership bridges the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, vital for Russian and Eastern European exports. The Cape of Good Hope on the South African coast serves as an alternative route if the Suez Canal is blocked, crucial for global trade. The Lombok Strait in Indonesia which is an alternative to the Strait of Malacca. All are Geopolitical chock points that are pivotal to global supply chains.

As the new world order faces off with the Western hegemony and developments like the BRICS bank being formed to counter the Bretton Woods another aspect is brought into play. Which is Geoeconomics that is basically about how countries use economic tools, policies, and strategies to advance their geopolitical goals. These tools range from trade agreements and investments for example the $ 50 Billion announced at FOCAC 9 in Beijing, to control over vital resources, like energy or rare earth metals.

Economic strength is a powerful asset in shaping global political power and achieving strategic ambitions. Sadly the West led by the USA and the whole EU see sanctions as the best tool to further this endvour. Today USA sanctions are used to disrupt global South supply chains which hinders development. It’s through embargoes that supply chains have taken the hit affecting even the most basic of traders in your local market to all kinds of consumers.

Supply Chains controls and disruptions even take extreme measures for example the latest case of Israeli operations in Lebanon, when a whole supply chains was compromised to plant explosives across the country.

The cross roads of supply chains, geopolitics, and geoeconomics is going  to shape the Multipolar world order, and the BRICS formation as a counterbalance to Western hegemony. Its going to take everything for example naval drills and economic partnerships. Multipolarity is going to redefine everything. The current situations, mostly driven by the West, show how supply chains are no longer just about movement of goods but affect every aspect of modern human civilization.

 

Benjamin is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

This year’s BRICS summit is scheduled to take place in the Brazilian capital, Rio de Janeiro from 6-7^th July under the theme “Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive and Sustainable Governance.”

The summit comes at a time when the world being tested by challenges such as geopolitical competition, the climate crisis, unilateralism, Protectinism, trade war, Israel’s genocide in Gaza, Ukraine crisis, and block confrontation among others.

This year’s summit theme gives hope not just to the Global South but the entire world. The summit comes at a time when all the leaders of the grouping which today accounts for 40% of global population and slightly more than 30% of world’s GDP are united and see an equal world. Also, the group’s success is making many countries court them with hopes of joining and benefiting from inevitable benefits that comes with being a member. More than 40 countries have so far expressed interest to join the group. However, BRICS leaders must ensure that the group’s expansion is driven by real reasons and purposeful inclusion by admitting members that align with their “ideal” view of the multipolar world the group wants to build. This means their expansion must be strategic; candidates’ animosity towards the west should never be used as qualification for one to become a member.

This is not to say that the group should not expand. There are more reasons for the BRICS to expand now than ever before. As Chinese ambassador to South Africa, Chen Xiaodong recently observed, “the traditional global governing system has become dysfunctional, deficient and missing in action” while BRICS grouping has stood the test of the time as fierce defenders of international justice.

For Africa, having countries like Egypt, Nigeria and Ethiopia as members of BRICS will help amplify African countries’ voice calling for reforms in the UN more audible. For a long time, African countries have called for reforms at the UN especially in the formation of the United Nations Security Council UNSC permanent members which African countries view as heavily biased against them.

It should be recalled that in 1945 when it was founded, only four African countries were members. Today, all the 54 African countries are full members of the UN. However, of the 193 member states, only the United States of America (USA), United Kingdom, France, Russia and China commonly referred to as the 5P are the permanent members of the UNSC – the organisation’s highest decision-making body. This gives the five countries more powers (veto) when it comes to voting on important issues in the council.

The irony of this is that, Africa whose membership at the UN is close to 28% of the body’s total membership has no major role despite always being the centre of discussion during the council’s work. In 2018 for example, more than 50% of UNSC’s meetings, 60% of their official documents and about 70% of their resolutions contained chapter VII mandates all focused on Africa. This means that without Africa, the UN as a body is arguably incomplete. This is not to say that I don’t recognise the fact that in the UNSC Africa is represented by the so-called A3, a block of three elected African states. It is important to observe that the A3 countries have no big say at the security council because none has veto power as opposed to the other five states with permanent membership.

The good news is that of all the BRICS founding members, none is opposed to Africa having a representative at the UNSC with equal powers as it is with the 5P. They are all involved in calling for reforms at the UN including reforming the current financial systems dominated by the Bretton Woods institutions which many analysts argue work on whims of the U.S and allies.

Critical analysis of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who while defending closer ties with Africa noted that “Brazil is back on the continent it should never have left. Africa offers vast opportunities and enormous potential for growth,” to China and Russia who have been strong advocates of African interests, it is clear that African countries’ interests have strong backing among all the founding members of the BRICS  in their call for reforms in the so-called traditional global governing system.

The current rhetoric among BRICS leaders, there is no doubt that BRICS offers more benefits to Africa than any other grouping today including the G7 which has always promised and when it comes to implementation nothing comes as was the case with their promise during the 2021 G7 summit in Cornwall, England where they promised infrastructure support to African countries under what U.S ruler Joe Biden called “build back better for the world” (B3W) that never materialised before they changed it to another white elephant announced during the 2023 G7 summit in Japan’s city of Hiroshima.

I agree with words of President Xi Jiniping in 2023 that “China is ready to work with fellow BRICS partners to act on the BRICS spirit of openness, inclusiveness and win-win cooperation, build consensus on important issues, carry forward our tradition of independent diplomacy, and resolutely uphold international equity and justice. We will urge the international community to refocus on development issues, promote a greater role by the BRICS cooperation mechanism in global governance, and make the voice of BRICS stronger.”

Whether as a group or individual, BRICS countries have in many ways shown their resolve to work with African countries supporting their social economic development. As President Xi observed in his ‘Sailing the Giant Ship of China-South Africa Friendship and Cooperation Toward Greater Success,’ “I will work with African leaders to bring more active, effective and sustainable development initiatives to Africa, expand cooperation in agriculture, manufacturing, new energy and digital economy, and facilitate Africa’s economic integration, industrialisation and agricultural modernisation. China will continue to work for substantive progress in the African Union’s joining of the G20 this year, and looks forward to a greater role by African countries and the AU in international and regional affairs.”

In conclusion, in all aspects, the BRICS has great potential to grow while helping the entire global south to develop. With their continued push for a multipolar world and calling for reforms in the current global system, the question at the centre is whether the group is willing to overtly challenge the current global system which has arguably given them the platform and more importantly lessons to learn from, or if they will take a step back and fight covertly and and stay fighting within while pushing for the ideal world they dream of. The challenge with the latter is that with this option, they risk losing their sight through socialisation and thereby abandoning the zeal of building their ideal world.

That said, the future of BRICS and by extension of Africa and the entire Global South is bright. With win-win cooperation which BRICS countries support, working together in sincerity will see the alliance growing stronger as the grouping and Africa work together in building a world with a shared future in the new era for mankind.

Allawi Ssemanda is a senior Research Fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

The 16^th BRICS summit is happening on the 22^nd-24^th of October 2024 in Kazan Russia. This summit will most likely revisit the nostalgia of the April 2011 Summit that took place in Sanya, China, when South Africa attended for the first time after being added in December 2010. Just like it was then Kazan will see Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE and Saudi Arabia attend after their admission in January 2024.

Russia the host of the 16^th BRICS summit also holds the BRICS presidency for 2024, and they have invited about 26 other countries some of which have expressed interest in joining the formation that is at the forefront of rewriting human history as it checks on Western hegemony. The growth of BRICS is a viable indicator that the Global South is seeking for an alternative to the current international order. The fact the Palestine is invited to attend shows the cracks in the current multilateral system and the need for a multipolar world.

BRICS summit has in the past offered numerous opportunities to even countries that attend at observer level for example the 5^th summit in the March of 2013 in Durban, South Africa that was remarkable for setting up of the BRICS think tank council and a Business Council.

At the same event in 2013 also through the same BRICS framework the first BRICS-Africa Outreach Dialogue took place and President Museveni of Uganda and President Xi of China finalized the deal for Karuma Hydropower plant construction.

On the sidelines of the BRICS summit that year, President Museveni and President Xi held talks and negotiations on financing and loan repayment. The Ugandan delegation successfully convinced their Chinese counterparts to reduce the interest rate offered by the Export–Import Bank of China (Exim Bank). As of September 2024, the plant was brought online, adding 600 megawatts to Uganda’s grid, increasing the country’s total capacity from 1,400 megawatts to 2,000 megawatts.

With over 30 countries expressing interest in some form to join the BRICS format, Kazan will be a ground for several sideline bilateral deals. Geopolitically and Geoeconomically Kazan will host from Asia Thailand, Malaysia, Bangladesh,  Indonesia and Vietnam, a NATO member that is on two continents in Turkey. African Continental Free Trade Area players like Algeria and Nigeria with the biggest demographics on the continent among other members of the Global South.

At the moment the 10 members of BRICS boast of 45% of the world’s population which is a market, 28% of the world’s GDP and 47% of the energy sector in crude oil, numbers that make economic sense. Already trade within BRICS economies overlapped trade between the BRICS and G7 nations. Basically BRICS trading framework is Sanction proof and in the Global South sanctions have been used to further colonialism and West imperialism.

With the U.N. Security Council being a shadow of its former self, the post-World War II power structure, no longer reflects today’s fast paced realities and that has led to the need for reform, and the BRICS Sidelines could be the place for the Global South to hatch a proper plan for better representation and the scrutiny of the veto power.

Kazan provides opportunities for countries to improve diplomatic relations for example on the Nile River where Karuma Hydropower Plant is, Ethiopia could sit down with Egypt to discuss how best they can share the natural resource without the beating of war drums from time to time in the horn of Africa. A multipolar world is in need of a rethought system to take on today’s challenges, from war and climate change to future pandemics and the BRICS Sidelines provide the opportunity to dialogue for starters to pave a civilized path for humanity.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.